Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · BA
Boeing Co
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $190B
- FY2030 revenue
- $146B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $13.35 · 15×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 8.45% · 9.74%
How this is built. Current management publishes program/rate milestones without a verified current dated long-range sales target; use FY2030 FactSet sales/EBIT consensus, peer operating economics and a mid-cycle commercial recovery, with explicit historical one-off limitations. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 2026
Reported Jul 28, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Airplanes | $11.8B | +8% | −$0.32B | -2.7% |
| Defense, Space & Security | $7.48B | +13% | −$15M | -0.2% |
| Global Services | $5.34B | +1% | $0.97B | 18.1% |
- Delivered 171 commercial aircraft; backlog 715B includes more than 6,200 commercial airplanes.
- 737 transitioned toward 47/month;737-7/737-10 certification anticipated 2026 andfirstdelivery 2027;777Xfirstdeliveryanticipated 2027.
- BDS0.2% operating loss includes 280M VC-25B losses;BGS18.1% operatingmargin.
- Q3 release scheduledOctober 27,2026; Q2is latestreported as ofOctober 20.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Airplanes | Margin | $83B | $101B | $127.53 | 14.8× EBIT | 81% |
| Defense, Space & Security | Margin | $39B | $47B | $58.91 | 12.3× EBIT | 70% |
| Global Services | Margin | $25B | $61B | $76.58 | 12.5× EBIT | 61% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$73B | −$92.12 | — | 68% |
| All businesses | $146B | $135B | $170.90 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$190B
- Less net debt at FY2030$33B
- Equity value at FY2030$157B
- ÷ (1 + 9.74%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$103B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.0%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$135B
- − borrowings$46B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$5.8B
- + cash and short-term investments$20B
- ÷ diluted shares0.790B
- Signal Ledger valuation$130.86
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $97B | −$5.1B | $3.2B | −$6.8B | $36B |
| FY2027 | $107B | −$1.3B | $3.5B | −$4.1B | $41B |
| FY2028 | $118B | $3.7B | $3.9B | −$0.5B | $44B |
| FY2029 | $131B | $10B | $4.3B | $4.2B | $41B |
| FY2030 | $146B | $18B | $4.8B | $10B | $33B |
What must be true
- Commercial Airplanes grows revenue from $44.8B in FY2026 to $83.2B in FY2030 (1.9×).
- Defense, Space & Security grows revenue from $30.8B in FY2026 to $38.9B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- Global Services grows revenue from $21.2B in FY2026 to $24.8B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- Commercial Airplanes raises its EBIT margin from -17.1% to 12.1%.
- Defense, Space & Security raises its EBIT margin from -0.5% to 12.4%.
- Global Services raises its EBIT margin from 18.7% to 22.1%.
- The company spends $19.7B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $43.7B in FY2028 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $187.55 at our discount rate, Boeing Co would need about $193.6B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 18.9% a year from FY2026) with 13.9% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $146.8B and 13.9% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $187.55 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.32×At research margins | $193.6B | 18.9% | 13.9% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $220.2B | 22.8% | 12.9% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $293.6B | 32.0% | 11.1% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $440.4B | 46.0% | 9.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $96.8B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 7.0%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.32×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 8.4% WACC · 9.7% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $193.6B (model: $146.8B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Commercial Airplanes
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $144.4B (model: $83.2B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 16.6% (model: 12.1%).
Global Services
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $47.7B (model: $24.8B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 37.3% (model: 22.1%).
Defense, Space & Security
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $98.5B (model: $38.9B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 22.6% (model: 12.4%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.74%
- WACC
- 8.45%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.17 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 45 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Commercial Airplanes | $44.8B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 8.1% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Commercial Airplanes | $83.2B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 16.7% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Commercial Airplanes | 12.1% | Consensus | linear path to 12.1% by FY2030 (management target) finanzen.net ↗ |
| Maintenance capexCommercial Airplanes | 3.3% | Rule | FY2025 total cash capex 2.942B including central 1.756B allocated over gross segment sales 89.651B; maintenance/growth proxy below 15%. Management says 2026 capex increases but no precise current complete budget verified, so no fabricated numeric guide. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthCommercial Airplanes | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Defense, Space & Security | $30.8B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 13.1% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Defense, Space & Security | $38.9B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 6.0% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Defense, Space & Security | 12.4% | Consensus | linear path to 12.4% by FY2030 (management target) finanzen.net ↗ |
| Maintenance capexDefense, Space & Security | 3.3% | Rule | FY2025 total cash capex 2.942B including central 1.756B allocated over gross segment sales 89.651B; maintenance/growth proxy below 15%. Management says 2026 capex increases but no precise current complete budget verified, so no fabricated numeric guide. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthDefense, Space & Security | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Global Services | $21.2B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 1.2% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Global Services | $24.8B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 4.0% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Global Services | 22.1% | Consensus | linear path to 22.1% by FY2030 (management target) finanzen.net ↗ |
| Maintenance capexGlobal Services | 3.3% | Rule | FY2025 total cash capex 2.942B including central 1.756B allocated over gross segment sales 89.651B; maintenance/growth proxy below 15%. Management says 2026 capex increases but no precise current complete budget verified, so no fabricated numeric guide. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthGlobal Services | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 3.3% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $2.939B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 3.3% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $2.939B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 8.45% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.74% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.17 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 21.0% | Rule | Normalized US federal statutory 21% tax anchor from 10K reconciliation; FY2023/2024 pretax losses-2.005/-12.210B make cash-tax ratios economically unusable, whileFY2025 GAAP15.1% reflects disposal gain and unusual tax items. No loss-generated negative ETR projected into profitable steady EBIT. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2026Consolidation | $0.2B | Rule | FY2025 net Unallocated/eliminations/Other revenue 0.188B /gross operating segments 89.651B maintained as future ratio. This is net company reconciliation, not a claim gross internal sales equal 0.188B. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2027Consolidation | $0.2B | Rule | FY2025 net Unallocated/eliminations/Other revenue 0.188B /gross operating segments 89.651B maintained as future ratio. This is net company reconciliation, not a claim gross internal sales equal 0.188B. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2028Consolidation | $0.2B | Rule | FY2025 net Unallocated/eliminations/Other revenue 0.188B /gross operating segments 89.651B maintained as future ratio. This is net company reconciliation, not a claim gross internal sales equal 0.188B. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2029Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 net Unallocated/eliminations/Other revenue 0.188B /gross operating segments 89.651B maintained as future ratio. This is net company reconciliation, not a claim gross internal sales equal 0.188B. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2030Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 net Unallocated/eliminations/Other revenue 0.188B /gross operating segments 89.651B maintained as future ratio. This is net company reconciliation, not a claim gross internal sales equal 0.188B. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2031Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 net Unallocated/eliminations/Other revenue 0.188B /gross operating segments 89.651B maintained as future ratio. This is net company reconciliation, not a claim gross internal sales equal 0.188B. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2032Consolidation | $0.4B | Rule | FY2025 net Unallocated/eliminations/Other revenue 0.188B /gross operating segments 89.651B maintained as future ratio. This is net company reconciliation, not a claim gross internal sales equal 0.188B. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2033Consolidation | $0.4B | Rule | FY2025 net Unallocated/eliminations/Other revenue 0.188B /gross operating segments 89.651B maintained as future ratio. This is net company reconciliation, not a claim gross internal sales equal 0.188B. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2034Consolidation | $0.4B | Rule | FY2025 net Unallocated/eliminations/Other revenue 0.188B /gross operating segments 89.651B maintained as future ratio. This is net company reconciliation, not a claim gross internal sales equal 0.188B. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2026Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | Net operating company reconciliation retained in annual corporate cost 2.939B; no separately quantified recurring unrealized internal-profit deduction and no duplicate charge. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2027Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | Net operating company reconciliation retained in annual corporate cost 2.939B; no separately quantified recurring unrealized internal-profit deduction and no duplicate charge. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2028Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | Net operating company reconciliation retained in annual corporate cost 2.939B; no separately quantified recurring unrealized internal-profit deduction and no duplicate charge. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2029Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | Net operating company reconciliation retained in annual corporate cost 2.939B; no separately quantified recurring unrealized internal-profit deduction and no duplicate charge. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2030Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | Net operating company reconciliation retained in annual corporate cost 2.939B; no separately quantified recurring unrealized internal-profit deduction and no duplicate charge. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2031Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | Net operating company reconciliation retained in annual corporate cost 2.939B; no separately quantified recurring unrealized internal-profit deduction and no duplicate charge. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2032Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | Net operating company reconciliation retained in annual corporate cost 2.939B; no separately quantified recurring unrealized internal-profit deduction and no duplicate charge. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2033Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | Net operating company reconciliation retained in annual corporate cost 2.939B; no separately quantified recurring unrealized internal-profit deduction and no duplicate charge. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2034Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | Net operating company reconciliation retained in annual corporate cost 2.939B; no separately quantified recurring unrealized internal-profit deduction and no duplicate charge. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $20.0B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:ShortTermInvestments · 0001628280-26-050038 (filed 2026-07-28) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $45.9B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0001628280-26-050038 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations · 0001628280-26-050038 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | finance leases not separately tagged; retained inside combined debt, with no additional lease deduction balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| Preferred stockBalance sheet | $5.8B | Reported | 6.00% SeriesA mandatory convertible preferred:5,750,000 shares ×$1,000 liquidationpreference =5.750B, not reportedparvalue 6M. Shares not converted into quoted common denominator; deduct preferred claim once. sec.gov ↗ |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $15M | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0001628280-26-050038 (filed 2026-07-28) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.790B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-21 cover page of 10-Q 0001628280-26-050038 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Reported | No common cash dividends during last four quarters; mandatory preferred dividends are claim financing, not common dividends. × 0.790B shares sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- annual diluted share comparison adjusted by reported stock-split factor 1; original annual count retained; us-gaap:StockholdersEquityNoteStockSplitConversionRatio 1; 0001628280-26-050038
- share-count comparison: 0.7906B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001628280-26-050038; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $2.9B a year (3.3% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 9.74% (β 1.17 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.4%
- Commercial Airplanes: terminal value is 81% of value
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →