Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · AMZN
Amazon.com Inc
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $2,627B
- FY2030 revenue
- $1,462B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $16.19 · 17×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.90% · 9.87%
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 2026
Reported Jul 30, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $116.2B | +16% | $9.12B | 7.9% |
| AWS | $42.2B | +37% | $16.6B | 39.4% |
| International | $42.2B | +15% | $1.72B | 4.1% |
- Latest released quarter as of October 22; subsequent October 27–29 results are not yet reported. Product/category profits left null when not separately disclosed.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North AmericaNorth America · stores, sellers, ads and Prime | Margin | $815B | $879B | $81.52 | 12.4× EBIT | 61% |
| InternationalInternational · stores, sellers, ads and subscriptions | Margin | $287B | $183B | $16.97 | 11.5× EBIT | 61% |
| AWSAWS · cloud and AI infrastructure | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $360B | $872B | $80.80 | 6.4× EBITDA | 79% |
| Anthropic nonvoting preferred stock and convertible notesNote 2: June 30 nonvoting preferred mark 92.5B plus convertible-note fair value 97.9B, both in noncurrent Other assets. Observable-round/fair-value marks, not speculative future gains. Separate from 122.988B cash/current securities; gains are below segment EBIT and added once. | Market mark | — | $190B | $17.65 | — | — |
| OpenAI funded Series C preferred stockNote 2: 15.0B + 13.7B funded Series C at the recent priced round, carried 28.7B in noncurrent Other assets. Subsequent 21.3B funding is after T0 and not added to June cash or this mark. A same-price purchase exchanges cash for an equal-value asset and creates no assumed incremental NAV; no future appreciation is invented. | Market mark | — | $29B | $2.66 | — | — |
| Businesses and holdings | $1,462B | $2,153B | $199.60 |
AWS: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 33.0% EBITDA a year against a 24.3% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $0.52 today after paying for its equipment.
Needs $44B of funding before it pays for itself; that lands in net debt.
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$2,627B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$263B
- Equity value at FY2030$2,890B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$1,892B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B
- + investments held outside the businesses$219B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.5%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$1,934B
- − borrowings$142B
- − finance leases$13B
- + cash and short-term investments$123B
- + investments held outside the businesses$219B
- ÷ diluted shares10.786B
- Signal Ledger valuation$196.60
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026part already reported | $846B | $152B | $161B | −$24B | $53B |
| FY2027 | $987B | $194B | $148B | $27B | $28B |
| FY2028 | $1,136B | $242B | $157B | $59B | $29B cash |
| FY2029 | $1,295B | $293B | $154B | $107B | $138B cash |
| FY2030 | $1,462B | $349B | $190B | $120B | $263B cash |
What must be true
- North America · stores, sellers, ads and Prime grows revenue from $486.8B in FY2026 to $815.4B in FY2030 (1.7×).
- International · stores, sellers, ads and subscriptions grows revenue from $188.9B in FY2026 to $287.3B in FY2030 (1.5×).
- AWS · cloud and AI infrastructure grows revenue from $170.8B in FY2026 to $359.9B in FY2030 (2.1×).
- North America raises its EBIT margin from 6.9% to 10.9%.
- International raises its EBIT margin from 2.9% to 6.9%.
- AWS raises its EBITDA margin from 52.1% to 56.1%.
- The company spends $809.9B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $53.1B in FY2026 and stays financeable.
- AWS earns 33.0% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 24.3% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
What the price implies
To reach $250.38 at our discount rate, Amazon.com Inc would need about $1,993.5B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 23.9% a year from FY2026) with 9.9% GAAP EBIT margin on margin-based lines and 56.1% EBITDA margin on capacity lines — versus $1,462.5B and 9.9% GAAP EBIT margin on margin-based lines and 56.1% EBITDA margin on capacity lines in our research.
At the research price of $250.38 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.36×At research margins | $1,993.5B | 23.9% | 9.9% GAAP EBIT 56.1% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $2,193.7B | 26.9% | 9.5% GAAP EBIT 53.8% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $2,924.9B | 36.3% | 8.5% GAAP EBIT 48.1% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $4,387.4B | 50.9% | 7.5% GAAP EBIT 42.2% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $846.5B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 8.4%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.36×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.9% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $1,993.5B (model: $1,462.5B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
North America · stores, sellers, ads and Prime
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $1,360.3B (model: $815.4B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 17.4% (model: 10.9%).
AWS · cloud and AI infrastructure
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $680.1B (model: $359.9B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBITDA margin would need to reach 68.9% (model: 56.1%).
International · stores, sellers, ads and subscriptions
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $1,206.6B (model: $287.3B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 27.0% (model: 6.9%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 9.90%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC + 0.385409 point build-out premium: 1pp × clamp(FY1 net debt increase / (2% × equity market value), 0, 1), not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 31 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026North America | $486.8B | Reported | blend growth (methodology §4.2), growth 14.2% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030North America | $815.4B | Rule | §4.2 G1: annual hold/fade blend across 14%–16%; fade weight 9.103159%; growth 13.581083%; FY1 input: Exact same-scope H1 revenue growth; replaces rounded growth. No full-year segment revenue guidance; advertising is already in the two stores segments. sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030North America | 10.9% | Rule | linear path to 10.9% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 13.8% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) Valuation methodology §4.3 (current E2) · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexNorth America | 4.5% | Rule | fulfillment, transportation and stores capex slightly above depreciation Amazon 2026 capex ~$200B, mostly AWS (shareholder letter 2026-04-09) |
| Terminal growthNorth America | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026International | $188.9B | Reported | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 16.7% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030International | $287.3B | Reported | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 8.6% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030International | 6.9% | Rule | linear path to 6.9% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 12.2% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) Valuation methodology §4.3 (current E2) · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexInternational | 3.5% | Rule | slightly above depreciation Amazon shareholder letter 2026-04-09 |
| Terminal growthInternational | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026AWS | $170.8B | Reported | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 32.7% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030AWS | $359.9B | Reported | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 15.2% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030AWS | 56.1% | Rule | linear path to 56.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 22.8% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) Valuation methodology §4.3 (current E2) · Read methodology ↗ |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)AWS | 1.7 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 1.73 earningscalls.dev ↗ |
| Equipment lifeAWS | 6 years | Reported | server life 5 years + 1 for long-lived assets evidence.usefulLivesYears: computer and technology equipment 5–6 years (a subset of servers moved from 6 to 5 years in 2025) |
| Capex FY2026AWS | $132.0B | Guidance | July 30 Q2 earnings call: 2026 cash CapEx raised from approximately 200B to 220B, primarily higher memory costs. This is the hosted full call transcript, not an official transcript; companion primary 10-Q https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm. Annual company cash budget before the existing pool share; not a disclosed AWS-only budget. × 0.6 pool share earningscalls.dev ↗ |
| Terminal growthAWS | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| YTD revenue through 2026-06-30AWS | $79.819000B | Reported | Reported H1 AWS revenue through final T0. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD GAAP operating profit through 2026-06-30AWS | $30.782000B | Reported | Reported first-half AWS operating income through final T0; sum of same-scope Q1/Q2, reconciled to Note 8. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD D&A through 2026-06-30AWS | $15.353000B | Reported | Reported H1 AWS PP&E depreciation, not 60% of company D&A or content amortization. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD capex through 2026-06-30AWS | $57.786000B | Rule | Company reported YTD capexB 96.31B × existing pool share 0.6; allocated once, not a reported segment amount. H1 cash PP&E purchases 98.411B less reported sales/incentives 2.101B = 96.310B, same net cash definition used in management cash-capex outlook. Allocate once by existing 60% pool. AWS asset additions 90.120B include accrual/noncash financing and are not asserted to be segment cash capex.; allocation: Retain existing 60% historical/current common capital-pool allocation. The reported net PP&E mix (AWS 263.75B / 446.05B) is a stock, not a disclosed 2026 capex-flow allocation. Residual company budget is not fully reconciled to retail maintenance capex; this is explicitly quantified for user judgment, without silently increasing this share. (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm) sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.90% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC + 0.385409 point build-out premium: 1pp × clamp(FY1 net debt increase / (2% × equity market value), 0, 1), not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 18.7% | Rule | §4.5 no annual tax guidance: mean FY2023/24/25 cash taxes / pretax income, 11.179/37.557, 12.308/68.614, 8.295/97.311. Tax Act accelerated depreciation and nonoperating investment gains affect comparability; no cash tax refund or SBC is additionally added to UFCF. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $123.0B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:MarketableSecuritiesCurrent · 0001018724-26-000026 (filed 2026-07-31) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $141.9B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings; separately reported failed-transfer / tower financing added once; ordinary debt and finance leases exclude this claim; future principal payments are not an additional operating investment sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $13.5B | Reported | finance lease liabilities (capex-like; deducted once) us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiability · 0001018724-26-000026 (filed 2026-07-31) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 10.786B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-22 cover page of 10-Q 0001018724-26-000026 |
| Anthropic nonvoting preferred stock and convertible notesNon-operating assets | $190.4B | Reported | Note 2: June 30 nonvoting preferred mark 92.5B plus convertible-note fair value 97.9B, both in noncurrent Other assets. Observable-round/fair-value marks, not speculative future gains. Separate from 122.988B cash/current securities; gains are below segment EBIT and added once. sec.gov ↗ |
| OpenAI funded Series C preferred stockNon-operating assets | $28.7B | Reported | Note 2: 15.0B + 13.7B funded Series C at the recent priced round, carried 28.7B in noncurrent Other assets. Subsequent 21.3B funding is after T0 and not added to June cash or this mark. A same-price purchase exchanges cash for an equal-value asset and creates no assumed incremental NAV; no future appreciation is invented. sec.gov ↗ |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Reported | Amazon pays no dividend × 10.786B shares no dividends |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 10.903B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001018724-26-000026; point-in-time denominator retained
- AWS: 2 quarter(s) of FY2026 already reported; counted as actuals
- AWS: dated YTD inputs through 2026-06-30; omitted metrics retain estimates, company capital-pool amounts allocated once
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.9% incl. 0.385409-point build-out premium (§4.5 G2)
- AWS: k 1.7 (calibrated 1.73), life 6 years
- §4.5 G2: FY1 net debt increase $20.81729114117077B / (2% × equity market value $2700.67719215736B); build-out premium 0.385409pp, measured before premium
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (Claude Opus 5.5) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →